Construction Project Scheduling Taking into Account the Risk of Temperatures Below –10°C in Poland

Abstract

The article attempts to determine the value of the duration of the building process depending on the risk of the occurrence of temperatures below –10°C in Poland. It summarizes the results of measurements of the temperature study over 62 years (from 1950 to 2011) in Poland. The number of days with temperatures below –10°C in future years was forecasted. The method of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Process Average) STATISTICA STAT SOFT was used. Stationarity series was tested using an IDW Durbin Watson integrative statistics and homoscedasticity was tested by the Levene test. The forecast error was verified using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation residues functions. On the basis of calculations, the risk values for outdoor works in each month in Poland was established. It is a part of BIM 6-D calculation. The calculated risk value can be used for the calculation in Risky Project Professional and in other programs. The proposed risk values and the method of calculation are the upcoming modification product, which has not been reported yet.