Construction production trends and industry optimism in EU countries after the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present the current changing situation of construction markets in selected European countries. Current trends in construction production are presented in relation to changes resulting from the coronavirus pandemic and other factors using the examples of France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Germany, Spain and Poland. The EU Construction Confidence Index (CCI) and data on the number of building permits issued in selected countries were used for inference. Additional sources of knowledge were publicly available information on ongoing and planned campaigns and government actions affecting local construction markets. The analysis presented shows a clear impact of the pandemic on construction production trends, an increase in optimism in the industry at its extinction and renewed declines in optimism due to the increasing destabilisation of economies as a result of inflation, rising energy prices and the war in Ukraine. Despite the difficulties, construction markets are slowly regaining their pre-pandemic growths, although the aforementioned factors are slowing them down. Strong mature economies, supported by additional government funding, will recover much faster than developing countries where uncertainty is greater. The negative indicators for Poland forecast a slowdown and a longer period of return to pre-pandemic COVID-19 growth.