Construction of Prediction Model of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Its Trend Prediction - Guizhou Province, China, 2023-2025.

Abstract

Foodborne diseases pose a significant public health concern globally. This study aims to analyze the correlation between disease prevalence and climatic conditions, forecast the pattern of foodborne disease outbreaks, and offer insights for effective prevention and control strategies and optimizing health resource allocation policies in Guizhou Province. This study utilized the χ2 test and four comprehensive prediction models to analyze foodborne disease outbreaks recorded in the Guizhou Foodborne Disease Outbreak system between 2012 and 2022. The best-performing model was chosen to forecast the trend of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province, 2023-2025. Significant variations were observed in the incidence of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province concerning various meteorological factors (all P≤0.05). Among all models, the SARIMA-ARIMAX combined model demonstrated the most accurate predictive performance (RMSE: Prophet model=67.645, SARIMA model=3.953, ARIMAX model=26.544, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=26.196; MAPE: Prophet model=42.357%, SARIMA model=37.740%, ARIMAX model=15.289%, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=13.961%). The analysis indicates that foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province demonstrate distinct seasonal patterns. It is recommended to concentrate prevention efforts during peak periods. The SARIMA-ARIMAX hybrid model enhances the precision of monthly forecasts for foodborne disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for future prevention and control strategies.