Construction of Air Quality Level Prediction Model Based on STEPDISC-PCA-BP

Abstract

Air quality level has a complex nonlinear relationship with air pollutant and meteorological conditions, including multiple factors, overlapping information, and difficulty solving equations. In order to identify significant factors, remove correlations, reduce data dimensionality, and simplify the model structure, a BP neural network model for air quality level prediction optimized by stepwise discriminant analysis (STEPDISC) and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed with 12 factors of historical daily meteorology and air pollutants in Bayannur city as samples. The results showed that, at the significance level of 0.01, the STEPDISC method retained 9 significant impact factors. The PCA method made an orthogonal linear combination of the 9 factors to form the principal components, and the contribution of the top 5 principal components were 37.6%, 19.2%, 15.3%, 8.8%, and 7.7%. At a contribution threshold of 0.85, the top 5 principal component scores were used as input nodes to construct the STEPDISC-PCA-BP model, which had a prediction accuracy of 85.5%.Compared with the PCA-BP and BP model, which had a prediction accuracy of 61.8% and 56.7%, respectively, the STEPDISC-PCA-BP model has a higher prediction accuracy, shorter time, and lower complexity of structure and data dimensionality, and can provide the necessary technical support for the local air quality improvement.