Construction of a Real-Time Forecast Model for Coastal Engineering and Processes Nested in a Basin Scale Model

Abstract

A numerical model was developed using Delft3D to simulate the circulation dynamics in Port Everglades, FL, and the adjacent coastal area. The model was nested within the HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), while meteorological data were obtained from the NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) model. To evaluate the model, model outputs were compared with observed data from the NOAA. Calibration experiments were conducted on the model parameters, including the bottom friction, wind forcings, and vertical layer specification. These experiments revealed that implementing a 10-layer model slightly improved the vertical stratification, while the utilization of 2-D wind data resulted in more pronounced surface layer characteristics in temperature and velocity profiles and employing moderate values of the Chezy coefficient produced optimal outcomes for the bottom roughness parameter. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance across major parameters, including water level, salinity, temperature, and currents. A real-time forecast system has been constructed with this nested model, providing up to 3-day forecasts that are updated daily. To facilitate automated forecasting without manual intervention, an automation system has been developed using a combination of bash, MATLAB, and Python scripts. This study provides a comprehensive documentation of the concepts and detailed methods involved in developing a real-time forecast model for estuarine and coastal regions.