Abstract
ObjectiveThis study aimed to construct and verify a useful nomogram that predicts the risk of preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) progression after elective spine surgery. MethodsData of patients were collected from 366 patients with preoperative DVT who underwent elective spine surgery at our hospital between July 2017 and May 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method combined with multivariable logistic regression analysis were applied to select features for the preoperative DVT progression risk model. The model's capability was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The decision curve and bootstrapping were used to analyze the clinical value of the nomogram. ResultA total of 366 DVT patients were enrolled in this study. Preoperative DVT progression after elective spine surgery was 24.04% (88 cases). Among these patients, 86 patients had thrombosis extending into a proximal vein or appearing in a different branch of the vein, either ipsilateral or contralateral, and two had a symptomatic pulmonary embolism. D-dimer, lower extremity varicosities, hyperlipidemia, lower limb paralysis, and operation time were among the predictors in the nomogram. Furthermore, the C-index of the prediction nomogram was 0.805 (95％ CI: 0.754–0.856), with an interval bootstrapping validation of 0.786 and an area under the ROC curve value of 0.800. According to the calibration curves and decision curve analysis, the nomogram could accurately predict the probability of preoperative DVT progression after elective spine surgery. ConclusionThe advantages of the nomogram included the unique discrimination capability, clinical utility, and predictive accuracy, which was beneficial for clinicians to distinguish high-risk groups of DVT progression after elective spine surgery and formulate relevant prevention measures.
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