Construction and validation of nomogram to predict distant metastasis in osteosarcoma: a retrospective study

Shouliang Lu,Yong Li,Guangfei Liu,Pengfei Wu,Cai Cheng,Yanhua Wang,Lu Wang

doi:10.1186/s13018-021-02376-8

Abstract

BackgroundOsteosarcoma is most common malignant bone tumors. OS patients with metastasis have a poor prognosis. There are few tools to assess metastasis; we want to establish a nomogram to evaluate metastasis of osteosarcoma.MethodsData from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with osteosarcoma were retrieved for retrospective analysis. We identify risk factors through univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, we established a nomogram to predict metastasis of patients with osteosarcoma and used the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves to test models.ResultsOne thousand fifteen cases were obtained from the SEER database. In the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, primary site, grade, T stage, and surgery are risk factors. The nomogram for metastasis was constructed based on these factors. The C-index of the training and validation cohort was 0.754 and 0.716. This means that the nomogram predictions of patients with metastasis are correct, and the calibration plots also show the good prediction performance of the nomogram.ConclusionWe successfully develop the nomogram which can reliably predict metastasis in different patients with osteosarcoma and it only required basic information of patients. The nomogram that we developed can help clinicians better predict the metastasis with OS and determine postoperative treatment strategies.

Highlights

Osteosarcoma (OS) originates from skeleton system throughout the body, especially in children and adolescents during bone growth [1] and a second incidence peak after 50 years [2]
It is generally believed that metastasis is an important factor affecting the prognosis of osteosarcoma
It is urgent to develop tools to predict the distant metastasis of osteosarcoma to guide clinical work

Summary

Introduction

Osteosarcoma (OS) originates from skeleton system throughout the body, especially in children and adolescents during bone growth [1] and a second incidence peak after 50 years [2]. OS is always the most common primary malignant tumor pathology of the skeleton system. It is generally believed that metastasis is an important factor affecting the prognosis of osteosarcoma. Surgical treatment has always been the standard treatment for osteosarcoma [7]. There is no useful method to evaluate metastasis status. It is urgent to develop tools to predict the distant metastasis of osteosarcoma to guide clinical work. Osteosarcoma is most common malignant bone tumors. OS patients with metastasis have a poor prognosis. There are few tools to assess metastasis; we want to establish a nomogram to evaluate metastasis of osteosarcoma

Methods

Results

Conclusion