Construction and Validation of a Diagnostic Scoring System for Predicting Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Patients with Positive T-SPOT Based on Indicators Associated with Coagulation and Inflammation: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study.

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a life-threatening single infectious disease, which remains a major global public health concern. This study was to establish and validate a clinically practical diagnostic scoring system for predicting active pulmonary tuberculosis (APTB) in patients with positive tuberculosis T cell spot test [T-SPOT] using indicators associated with coagulation and inflammation. A single-center retrospective cross-sectional study was performed to include patients with positive T-SOPT registered and hospitalized at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. All patients were separated into the active pulmonary tuberculosis (APTB) group and the inactive pulmonary tuberculosis (IPTB) group, according to the diagnostic criteria from China's Expert Consensus for APTB and IPTB. Subsequently, the patients were randomized into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 2:1. Indicators associated with coagulation and inflammation, including prothrombin time activity (PTA), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), fibrinogen concentration (Fbg-C), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), C-reactive protein/prealbumin ratio (CPR), neutrophils count/lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), platelet count/lymphocyte count ratio (PLR), monocyte count/lymphocyte count ratio (MLR), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were obtained from electronic medical record system (EMRS). Stepwise logistic regression was performed in the training set to build a diagnostic model for predicting APTB, which was transformed into an easily applicable scoring system via nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curve (CC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to evaluate the predictive performance of the established diagnostic scoring system. A total of 508 patients [training set (211 cases of APTB and 116 cases of IPTB) and validation set (103 cases of APTB and 78 cases of IPTB)] with positive T-SPOT were recruited in the study. Stepwise logistic regression showed that CPR, MLR, ESR, APTT and Fbg-C were independent predictors for APTB. The scoring system was subsequently formulated based on the abovementioned predictors, which correspond to scores of 10, 6, 7, 5, and 5, respectively. In addition, patients are more likely to be diagnosed as APTB when the cut-off score was ≥16 scores, while patients with <16 scores are more likely to be diagnosed as IPTB. The scoring system showed good predictive efficacy in both the training set [area under the curve (AUC): 0.887] and the validation set (AUC: 0.898). Furthermore, both CC and DCA confirmed the clinical utility of the scoring system. The data suggest that the combination of indicators associated with coagulation and inflammation could serve as biomarkers to identify APTB in patients with positive T-SPOT. In addition, patients with positive T-SPOT were more prone to be diagnosed with APTB when having a combined total of scores ≥16 in the scoring system.