Construction and Application of Reservoir Flood Control Operation Rules Using the Decision Tree Algorithm

Yanfang Diao,Hao Wang,Chengmin Wang,Yanli Liu

doi:10.3390/w13243654

Abstract

Current conventional and optimal reservoir flood control operation methods insufficiently utilize historical reservoir operation data, which include rainfall, runoff generation, and inflow from the watershed, as well as the operational experience of decision makers over many years. Therefore, this study proposed and evaluated a new method for extracting reservoir flood control operation rules from historical operation data using the C4.5 algorithm. Thus, in this paper, the C4.5 algorithm is first introduced; then, the generation of the flood control operation dataset, the construction of decision tree-based (DT-based) rules, and the subsequent design of a real-time operating scheme are detailed. A case study of the Rizhao Reservoir is then employed to demonstrate the feasibility and even superiority of the operating scheme formulated using DT-based rules. Compared with previously proposed conventional and optimal reservoir operation methods, the DT-based method has the advantages of strong and convenient adaptability, enabling decision makers to effectively guide real-time reservoir operation.

Highlights

Flood disasters are currently among the major global problems faced by human society.From 1989 to 2018, 3945 major flood disasters occurred around the world, with China, India, the United States, and Indonesia experiencing the largest number: about 1200 in total [1]
Owing to the frequency of and significant economic losses associated with flood disasters, a considerable number of water conservation projects have been undertaken to reduce the adverse effects of floods
The decision tree (DT) algorithm was applied to formulate reservoir flood control operation rules that fully consider the influence of reservoir management experience, climate factors, and subsurface conditions of the watershed on discharge, realizing a fast and effective operating scheme that responds to various inflow scenarios under different hydrological periods

Summary

Introduction

Flood disasters are currently among the major global problems faced by human society.From 1989 to 2018, 3945 major flood disasters occurred around the world, with China, India, the United States, and Indonesia experiencing the largest number: about 1200 in total [1]. There were 109 flood disasters worldwide in 2018, causing 1995 deaths, affecting 12.62 million people, and resulting in $4.5 billion in direct economic losses [2]. The goal of reservoir flood control operation studies is to define an optimal operation policy for a given reservoir that balances its various purposes [5]. This policy represents a powerful tool for the guidance of reservoir operation, serving as a decision-making reference during the planning and design of a water conservancy project and a key to realizing the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir during its operation

Objectives

Methods

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Conclusion