Constructing the Evolution of International Factors on War Model with a Comparative Political PerspectiveTaking the War in Ukraine as an Example

Abstract

In terms of the state of Europe, Michael E. OHanlon believes that even if the war in Ukraine ends soon, the events so far have changed the security environment in Europe. The tripwire strategy NATO has used in the Baltic states and Poland since about 2017 must now be replaced by a permanent forward defense posture of modest size and scope. Starting with two external factors, aid and sanctions, this paper uses a comparative political science approach to construct a military and economic model of the Russo-Ukrainian war by September 2022. This paper finds that Ukraine is constrained by its strength and weapons in the face of advanced operational command concepts and cannot effectively stop Russia. This ideological difference has led to a failure to achieve a balanced model of war, while at the same time, we note that all sides are also managing the risk of war escalation. The lack of planning for economic sanctions against Russia and the vacillating attitudes of the West, including the US, make the course of the war and subsequent reconstruction far from certain.