Abstract
During episodes such as the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, China experienced notable fluctuations in its GDP growth and key expenditure components. To explore the primary sources of these fluctuations, we construct a comprehensive dataset of GDP and its components in both nominal and real terms at a quarterly frequency. Applying two SVAR models to this dataset, we uncover the principal drivers of China's economic fluctuations across different episodes. In particular, our findings reveal the stark and enduring impacts of consumption-constrained shocks on GDP and all of its components, especially household consumption, both during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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