Construct the future wetland ecological security pattern with multi-scenario simulation

Abstract

The construction of wetland ecological security pattern has important guiding significance for balancing urban development and ecological restoration. In this paper, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change under the business as usual scenario (BAU), economic development scenario (ED) and expansionary conservation scenario (EC) in 2030. Coupled with the wetland ecological security pattern, four wetland ecological networks were constructed for vertical and horizontal comparative analysis. The optimal network was selected and ecological pinch points and obstacles were identified. The results showed that: (1) The land use change mainly occurred in the main urban area of Haikou. Under BAU and ED scenarios, the area of construction land increased greatly. Under EC scenarios, the overall ecological land in Haikou would expand, but the area of wetland showed a downward trend. (2) In 2030, the overall ecological wetland network will be improved, the number and length of corridors will increase significantly, and the network structure under EC scenario will be more stable. (3) The number and area of ecological pinch points and obstacle points under the EC scenario in 2020 and 2030 increased significantly, and this area should be regarded as a priority area for ecological protection. This study provides a new perspective for ecological protection and restoration, and provides a reference for clarifying the direction of wetland ecological restoration work and formulating urban construction and development policies.