Abstract
AbstractThe signal of temperature change has emerged from background variations in most tropical regions in boreal summer over decadal‐centennial timescales but not in northern‐central India (NCI). In this study, we investigated the reason for the limited temperature change in NCI. We found that internal variability, largely caused by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on a ∼20‐year timescale, has the potential to mask the temperature change signal. Besides, local response to external forcing, linked to non‐greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, strongly overrides GHG warming in NCI, which results in little trend in the temporal evolution of external variability. The internal variability related to IPO and the limited warming arising from the competition between multiple forcings result in the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio and thus, the temperature change signal fails to emerge from the background variations.
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