Constitutional referendums and ethnonational conflict: the case of Northern Ireland

Abstract

This piece reviews the utility of constitutional referendums in ethnonational conflicts. It concentrates on Northern Ireland, where calls for a constitutional referendum have been made in the wake of the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Although the Agreement has significant consensual and consociational elements, its provision for a constitutional referendum on Northern Ireland's sovereignty means that the Agreement cannot form the basis for a definitive settlement. Instead, constitutional politics have been re-energized. Using data from a survey of public attitudes, it finds that a binary choice constitutional referendum is unlikely to lead to a satisfactory outcome.