Constituency map of the alternative for Germany (AfD) vote in 2017: analysing characteristic differences via multiple correspondence analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved a striking success in the 2017 German federal election. Using structural constituency data, this article explores in which constituencies the AfD gained more votes and why. As it transformed from a single-issue, anti-Euro party with populist tendencies into a right-wing populist party, the AfD refined its position and focus. I argue that at the constituency level, the AfD vote was linked to the issue of immigration and the anti-establishment trend. The demands voiced by AfD voters can be linked to certain political and socioeconomic characteristics of their constituencies which made them susceptible to the AfD’s right-wing populist rhetoric. Applying the statistical technique of multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), I examine the relationship between these characteristics and the AfD vote share at the constituency level. The AfD was likely to win more votes in constituencies characterised by an anti-establishment trend and anti-immigrant/refugee sentiment, the latter of which was linked not to the actual immigration rate, but rather to a combination of a low level of education and a high level of macroeconomic development.