Constituency campaigning intensity and its impact at first and second-order elections: Wales, 2010 and 2011

Abstract

Is the local campaign in sub-national elections less intense than national elections? Did campaigning have an impact on those contacted and on party performance; and was campaigning as effective at second as at first-order contests? For the first time, our analysis of local campaigning in the 2010 general election and the 2011 Welsh Assembly election addresses these questions. Our findings suggest that campaign resources, particularly in 2011, were focused on core identifiers plus those respondents who stated prior to the election that they intended to vote for the party. But only Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru activism on party contact differed by election, with both parties campaigning having a greater influence on party contact in 2011 than in 2010. Generally speaking, in 2011 - campaign intensity did matter; respondents contacted by the party they favoured made them much more likely to turn out and support it. But, of the four main parties in Wales, only Liberal Democrat campaigning was more effective in mobilising party support in 2011 than in 2010.