CON-SST-RAIN: Continuous Stochastic Space–Time Rainfall generation based on Markov chains and transposition of weather radar data

Abstract

In this study, we present CON-SST-RAIN, a novel stochastic space–time rainfall generator specialized for model-based urban drainage design and planning. CON-SST-RAIN is based on Markov Chains for sequences of dry/rainy days and uses stochastic storm transposition (SST) to generate realistic rainfall fields from weather radar data. CON-SST-RAIN generates continuous areal rainfall time series at arbitrary lengths. We propose a method for updating the Markov Chains by each passing year to better incorporate low-frequency variation in inter-annual rainfall values. The performance of CON-SST-RAIN is tested against multi-year records from rain gauges at both point and catchment scales. We find that updating the Markov Chains has a significant impact on the inter-annual variation of rainfall, but has little effect on mean annual/seasonal precipitation and dry/wet spell lengths. CON-SST-RAIN shows good preservation of extreme rain rates (including sub-hourly values) compared to observed rain gauge data and the original SST framework.