Conspiracy Mentality in Post-Conflict Societies: Relations With the Ethos of Conflict and Readiness for Reconciliation.

Boban Petrović,Sanja Radetić Lovrić,Olivera Radović,Janko Međedović

doi:10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1695

Abstract

After almost 20 years since the end of the armed conflicts in former Yugoslavia, we are witnesses to the fact that the main causes of the conflicts have not been overcome. Reconciliation between ethnic groups that had been in conflict by means of economic and political cooperation, must have a psychological foundation. This study investigates the relations between Conspiracy Mentality, basic lexical social attitudes, and the factors important for Croatian-Serbian and Kosovo Albanian-Serbian reconciliation, i.e., the Ethos of Conflict and the Readiness for Reconciliation. We hypothesize that Conspiracy Mentality will predict the propensity for reconciliation over and above basic social attitudes, and that will mediate the relations between basic social attitudes and factors contributing (or preventing) reconciliation. With the samples of Serbs from Central Serbia (n = 307) and Northern Kosovo (n = 271), Conspiracy Mentality, Ethos of Conflict, Readiness for Reconciliation and five basic lexical social attitudes (Traditional Religiosity, Unmitigated Self-Interest, Communal Rationalism, Subjective Spirituality, and Inequality-Aversion) were measured. Results showed that Conspiracy Mentality is negatively related to the Readiness for Reconciliation and positively to the Ethos of Conflict. Additionally, Conspiracy Mentality predicts Ethos of Conflict over and above the basic social attitudes. Finally, Conspiracy Mentality mediates the relationships between Traditional Religiosity, Inequality-Aversion and Subjective Spirituality on the one hand, and Ethos of Conflict on the other. The results suggest that Conspiracy Mentality should be taken into consideration when creating policies and programmes focused on reconciliation.

Highlights

After almost 20 years since the end of the armed conflicts in former Yugoslavia, we are witnesses to the fact that the main causes of the conflicts have not been overcome
The results showed that the Serbs from Northern Kosovo are more conservative than those from Central Serbia
Inequality-Aversion (i.e., Egalitarianism) is positively associated with Communal Rationalism, in line with theoretical expectations, but is positively related to Traditional Religiosity and Ethos of Conflict, and negatively to Readiness for Reconciliation. These findings are theoretically unexpected, but congruent with some previous findings (e.g., Petrović, 2016). These findings suggest the same kind of mixture of egalitarianistic and conservative ideology which has been recognized in Serbia from the beginning of the 1990s and labeled as socialistic conservatism

Summary

Introduction

After almost 20 years since the end of the armed conflicts in former Yugoslavia, we are witnesses to the fact that the main causes of the conflicts have not been overcome. The dominant narrative among the Serbian people, common for all the Yugoslav wars, is the narrative about the Serbs (and Serbia) as historical victims, with the ever-present tendency to defend themselves from external threats (Obradović, 2016), including those coming from the international community, which is seen as negative, unjust and unfair towards Serbia and the Serbian people (Obradović & Howarth, 2018) These social representations of the conflicts have an important role in the creation of distrust between the ethnic groups and the prevention of reconciliation (Psaltis, Franc, Smeekes, Ioannou, & Žeželj, 2017). These narratives about the conflicts could be considered as part of the broader concepts that represent the socio-psychological foundations of intractable conflicts, such as Ethos of Conflict (BarTal, 2000, 2007), and Readiness for Reconciliation (Petrović, 2017)

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