Consistent recalibration of yield curve models

Abstract

AbstractThe analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasiček and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) models, has made them a popular choice for modeling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to properly account for the dynamics of real data, these models must exhibit time‐dependent or even stochastic parameters. This breaks their tractability, and modeling and simulating become an arduous task. We introduce a new class of Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) models that both fit the dynamics of real market data and remain tractable. We call these models consistent recalibration (CRC) models. CRC models appear as limits of concatenations of forward rate increments, each belonging to a Hull–White extended affine factor model with possibly different parameters. That is, we construct HJM models from “tangent” affine models. We develop a theory for continuous path versions of such models and discuss their numerical implementations within the Vasiček and CIR frameworks.