Abstract

Six clinicians in a thyroid unit were asked to allocate 40 patients already diagnosed as thyrotoxic to one of the three available treatments (antithyroid drugs, surgery, and radioiodine) on the basis of five items of information about each patient (age, goitre size, general health, 24-hour I131 uptake, and 48-hour protein-bound I131 level) which they had previously agreed were suffcient for this purpose. An index of inconsistency based on differences between a clinician's actual allocations and those predicted by a simulative model derived from his performance showed considerable differences in consistency among the clinicians. Analysis of the extent to which they were making effective use of the indicants showed that none was using more than three, and that there were, in effect, widely different allocation policies.

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