Abstract
In this paper, the authors present a methodology for estimating travel time reliability based on modeling travel time variations as a function of demand, capacity and weather conditions. Accidents are modeled as a function of traffic conditions. The methodology is able to evaluate impacts of congestion relief schemes on travel time reliability and safety. Reliability and congestion measures are first measured using data from a segment of an intercity expressway. The proposed methodology is then applied to develop a simulation model for estimating travel time reliability and the number of accidents on the test bed. The model is then applied in evaluating the impacts of opening the hard shoulder of the roadway to traffic and reducing the peak period travel time reliability and safety.
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