Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Re-Examining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record

Bruce S Lieberman,Adrian L Melott,John Hawks

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000759

Bruce S Lieberman, Adrian L Melott + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000759

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Journal: PLoS ONE	Publication Date: Aug 22, 2007
Citations: 79	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: American Museum of Natural History, University of Kansas

Abstract

We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by [1], as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by [1] may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.

Highlights

One of the most controversial, yet provocative, paleobiological topics is the evidence for cyclicity in patterns of extinction and diversity in the fossil record
It is true that [4,5] countenanced more of a role for the physical environment than [6], primarily because he thought that cyclical fluctuations in sealevel rise and fall played some role in mediating this phenomenon; this likely reflects the influence of his advisor and mentor, RC Moore. [4,5,6] and [9,10] were largely a reaction to [11] and other publications by AW Grabau, whose work was a challenge to the uniformitarian and neo-Darwinian framework
In order to avoid numerical artifacts associated with the singular and sudden rise in biodiversity around the early Cambrian, we truncated all time series at 519 million years ago (Ma), except for the results reported in Figure 1, which are designed to be a direct comparison with those of [1]

Summary

Introduction

One of the most controversial, yet provocative, paleobiological topics is the evidence for cyclicity in patterns of extinction and diversity in the fossil record. [7] and [2,3] argued for periodic patterns in episodes of extinction on the order of 26–32 Myr. [8] provided a detailed review of periodicity in the geological and paleontological records; [7,8] endorsed the notion that cyclical fluctuations in the physical environment, including changes in climate, were driving long term periodicity in the fossil record. By contrast, [6] argued strongly against the notion that fluctuations in the abiotic environment could produce such long term periodicity. The arguments in [4,5] were largely similar to those of [6] to the extent that he argued that cyclic fluctuations in fossil biodiversity were not primarily driven by cycles in the abiotic environment. It is true that [4,5] countenanced more of a role for the physical environment than [6], primarily because he thought that cyclical fluctuations in sealevel rise and fall played some role in mediating this phenomenon; this likely reflects the influence of his advisor and mentor, RC Moore. [4,5,6] and [9,10] were largely a reaction to [11] and other publications by AW Grabau, whose work was a challenge to the uniformitarian and neo-Darwinian framework.

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Conclusion