Considering Nuclear Accident in Energy Modeling Analysis

Abstract

After Fukushima nuclear accident, alternative energy sources show a dramatic growth such as natural gas, petroleum and solar photovoltaic to compensate the loss of nuclear energy supply in Japan, and in the latest national energy policy, the government plans to promote renewable energy at a scale larger than the one aimed in the previous policy. Hence, the Fukushima accident can be regarded as the tipping point for the country to pursue alternative energy and environmental policy adjusting into the social circumstance after the Fukushima. So far, energy model has been developed to discuss long-term energy scenario in a consistent way and to analyze the effectiveness of energy policy. However, the most of the model developed until now does not explicitly consider the impact of nuclear accident on the long-term pathway of energy portfolio, in spite of the fact that the Fukushima accident is actually observed to dramatically change the situation of energy demand and supply in Japan. This manuscript aims to overview the transition of energy supply and demand in Japan after the Fukushima and to discuss the possibility of considering nuclear accident in energy modeling analysis by applying stochastic dynamic programming.