Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Orly Razgour,Brenna Forester,John B Taggart,Michaël Bekaert,Javier Juste,Carlos Ibáñez,Sébastien J Puechmaille,Roberto Novella-Fernandez,Antton Alberdi,Stéphanie Manel

doi:10.1073/pnas.1820663116

Abstract

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

Highlights

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change
Local adaptations were identified through common garden experiments [3], but the advent of high-throughput sequencing techniques opened the door to the use of genomic approaches to identify signatures of local adaptations by relating genetic variation and environmental variables [21]
Using a combination of population genomics, spatial ecology, and predictive modeling we show the importance of incorporating genomic data into climate change forecasts

Summary

Introduction

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Studies attempting to incorporate genetic variation into ENMs primarily use neutral markers to identify phylogeographic structure and generate separate models for each genetically distinct population These have resulted in more pessimistic forecasts than traditional ENMs, predicting increased threats from climate change due to range losses in vulnerable populations [11], but have not affected projections of range size changes at the species level [12]. An equivalent number of species did not experience local extinctions at their warm range edge [2], indicating that either phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptations may enable some populations to persist under warmer conditions This highlights the importance of incorporating intraspecific adaptations into climate change vulnerability assessments [3, 4].

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Conclusion