Consideration of the possibilities of applying machine learning methods for data analysis when promoting services to bank's clients

Abstract

The object of the research is modern online services and machine learning libraries for predicting the probability of the bank client's consent to the provision of the proposed services. One of the most problematic areas is the high unpredictability of the result in the field of banking marketing using the most common technique of introducing new services for clients – the so-called cold calling. Therefore, the question of assessing the probability and predicting the behavior of a potential client when promoting new banking services and services using cold calling is particularly relevant. In the course of the study, libraries of machine learning methods and data analysis of the Python programming language were used. A program was developed to build a model for predicting the behavior of bank customers using data processing methods using gradient boosting, regularization of gradient boosting, random forest algorithm and recurrent neural networks. Analogous models were built using cloud machine learning services Azure ML, BigML and the Auto-sklearn library. Data analysis and prediction models built using Python language libraries have a fairly high quality – an average of 94.5 %. Using the Azure ML cloud service, a predictive model with an accuracy of 88.6 % was built. The BigML machine learning service made it possible to build a model with an accuracy of 88.8 %. Machine learning methods from the Auto-sklearn library made it possible to obtain a model with a higher quality – 94.9 %. This is due to the fact that the proposed libraries of the Python programming language allow better customization of data processing methods and machine learning to obtain more accurate models than free cloud services that do not provide such capabilities. Thanks to this, it is possible to obtain a predictive model of the behavior of bank customers with a fairly high degree of accuracy. It is worth noting that in order to make a prediction (forecast), it is necessary to study the context of the task, process the data, build various machine learning algorithms, evaluate the quality of the models and choose the best of them.