Abstract
On the basis of analyzing current approaches it is concluded that the optimum approach to estimating the failure probability for ceramic articles with short-term loading should be a combination of explicit and implicit consideration of different features of material defects and the stressed state. Calculation dependences developed by the authors are given in explicit form which consider separately the effect of surface and volume defects, the form of stressed state, curvature of the loading path, and the nature of defect orientation distribution. The effect of loading path curvature on the calculated failure probability is demonstrated by a numerical example. Methods are considered for determining the parameters of material surface and volume defects used in the suggested relationships.
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