Abstract
Based on the problem of abandoned water and insufficient output caused by runoff randomness, the short-term runoff inflow interval prediction method combined with nonparametric kernel density estimation (NKDE)and Monte Carlo (MC)sampling is proposed. The method analyzes the impact of hydropower station abandonment risk and insufficient output risk caused by inflow uncertainty on hydropower station output and thermal power output in the power grid, and the corresponding output adjustment strategy is given. This paper mainly carries out these studies: real-time load distribution, short-term runoff interval prediction and real-time output adjustment of hydro-thermal power plant under uncertain incoming water: (1) Risk factors of water and electricity may be involved in the scheduling process, the process of considering runoff uncertainty on hydropower unit output, analyze the impact of hydropower abandoned water risk, estimate based on short-term nonparametric kernel density estimation (NKDE) runoff forecasting methods, given the range of the forecast runoff, reducing forecast error runoff, combine Monte Carlo (MC) sampling and propose a new real-time power control adjustment strategy. (2) Taking Qingjiang cascade power station as a case study, considering the increase of incoming water and the decrease of incoming water, the impact of water abandonment risk and insufficient output risk on short-term power generation plan is verified. The results show that the proposed hydropower and thermal power output adjustment can effectively deal with the risk of abandoned water and the risk of insufficient output. It is of positive significance to make full use of hydropower resources. It is helpful for the safe and stable operation of Hubei Power Grid.
Highlights
Hydropower has the advantages of rich resources, mature technology and cost economy
The total installed capacity of the three hydropower stations is more than 3.3 million kilowatts, which plays a significant role in peak regulation and frequency regulation of Hubei Power Grid
This paper constructed a scheduling research framework considering the uncertainties of incoming water during reservoir power generation and dispatching: an interval forecasting method based on nonparametric kernel density estimation (NKDE)and mathematical statistics was proposed
Summary
Hydropower has the advantages of rich resources, mature technology and cost economy. it is greatly affected by the uncertainty of runoff. An example description and optimization calculation analysis are carried out to find the optimal dispatching scheme meeting the decision objectives It Zhu and Wu [10] analyzed the relationship between day-to-day transactions and real-time transactions under the current power market environment, fully considered the complex hydraulic connections and power connections of the hydrothermal power system, and established an uncertain short-term optimal dispatching of hydrothermal power system considering both costs and risks given because of the effects of various uncertainties such as load and price of the power grid, the randomness of runoff and incoming water. Considering a series of hydraulic connections Zheng et al [11] such as generator current flow, output power and water flow delay of cascade hydropower plant units, the objective function is the minimum operating cost of thermal power plant The solution of this method is solved by an improved one-parent genetic algorithm.
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