Abstract
Abstract. The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural–human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.
Highlights
Our world faces a public policy conundrum
Given the connection between agriculture and value-added meat production, we assign the other 0.32 full-time equivalent (FTE) emanating from indirect and induced employment impacts to the coefficient for manufacturing (.32 · 1.33 = .43 people). Taken together this suggests that each USD 1 million in cash flow at time t (CFt) from crop production supports 1.2 additional jobs and 2.3 more people living in the region
These results corroborate previous studies that show that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities, as farmers use their water application savings on more fields to increase their capital returns (Ward and Pulido-Velazquez, 2008a, b; Steward et al, 2013)
Summary
Our world faces a public policy conundrum. Crop yields on many varieties have tripled over the past 50 years, with irrigated cropping practices accounting for 40 % of the total increased level of production (United Nations, 2011, p. 3). The scientific community has developed hydrological models that confirm what we already know; that this natural system aquifer is already past its peak groundwater depletion (Steward and Allen, 2016) and will soon be so diminished that it can no longer sustain its current irrigation farming practices (McGuire, 2014; Scanlon et al, 2012; Steward et al, 2013). This policy study uses a coupled natural–human (CNH) system approach focused on Groundwater Management District 3 in southwestern Kansas. We (1) accurately model the current CNH system, (2) forecast the outcomes of policy scenarios to transition the current groundwater-based economic system toward avenues that are more sustainable for the social, economic, and natural systems, and (3) develop public policy options that will conserve the aquifer while minimizing the economic cost for the region’s communities
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