Abstract

Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the ‘Core Amazon’, due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.

Highlights

  • It is essential that conservation and development strategies for the Amazon reflect its importance as a repository of biodiversity and provider of globally important ecosystem services

  • We show how the large-scale design of protected area systems can help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by identifying potential refugia and incorporating these into corridors that will allow species to persist, shift ranges and adapt to climate change

  • AND RECOMMENDATIONS (a) Protect areas with stable high-precipitation regimes If the risk from climate change is associated with reduced rainfall and increasing seasonality, the areas with the highest actual rainfall and least seasonality, such as the central and western Amazon, are areas with the highest probability of avoiding the negative impacts

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Summary

Introduction

It is essential that conservation and development strategies for the Amazon reflect its importance as a repository of biodiversity and provider of globally important ecosystem services. All the models predict increased warming in the Amazon, but vary regarding future precipitation regimes ranging from increasing wetness to pronounced drought (Li et al 2006). The HadMC3LC model predicts that global climate change will initiate a feedback cycle that shifts most of the Amazon from an evergreen forest to a savannah ecosystem within the century (Betts et al 2004).

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