Consequences of terminating mangrove’s protection in Brazil

Abstract

The Brazilian government agenda for downgrading and degazettement of protected ecosystems has seen an unprecedented move with the revocation of the mangrove’s protection act in the country. As the second largest country in mangrove extent, with over 11,000 km2 of forests that have been conserved for decades, mangroves may now be open for unsustainable economic development. Shrimp aquaculture and urban development are likely the highest threats to mangrove forests in Brazil. When built over mangrove land, shrimp ponds release greenhouse gases at a rate up to 10-fold larger than cattle pasture conversion on dryland forests. In a scenario of low rates of mangrove loss of 0.1% per year (2-fold current rates), emissions from land use would be close to 1.6 Tg CO2e per year, which is equivalent to 0.01% of emissions from deforestation in the Amazon over an area 1500 times smaller. Urban development and removal of mangroves to human infrastructure also have strong negative effects on pollutant retention, which could further decrease water quality and increase coastal vulnerability near urban centers. The loss of mangroves have also expected negative effects on food provision, which allied to other key ecosystem services provided by mangroves, will be key to a sustainable ocean under a changing climate during the next century.