Abstract
Abstract Are there long-term labor consequences in migrating to the US during a recession? For most immigrants, credibly estimating this effect is difficult because of selective migration. Some immigrants may not move if economic conditions are not favorable. However, identification is possible for refugees as their arrival dates are exogenously determined through the US Refugee Resettlement program. A one percentage point increase in the arrival national unemployment rate reduces refugee wages by 1.98% and employment probability by 1.57 percentage points after 5 years.
Highlights
How do initial economic conditions affect long-term employment and wage outcomes for refugees who immigrate to the United States? This question is important because it provides insight into how initial economic conditions affect long-term assimilation outcomes for immigrants in general
The results found using state unemployment rates are less persistent than those found using the national unemployment rate, suggesting that mobility across states or differential rates of economic improvement across states may be important factors in mitigating these effects
This paper focuses primarily on current employment and log wages, but I show the effect of initial economic conditions on annual earnings, welfare utilization and mobility between states.[9]
Summary
How do initial economic conditions affect long-term employment and wage outcomes for refugees who immigrate to the United States? This question is important because it provides insight into how initial economic conditions affect long-term assimilation outcomes for immigrants in general. By definition, are unable to stay in their country of origin due to political persecution, conflict, famine or general lack of security. Refugees are subject to annual quotas proposed by the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration and certified by the President that can change their eligibility from year to year They are unable to choose the state within the US that they are initially resettled unless they already have family living in the country. These institutional features provide exogenous variation that make it possible to empirically measure how various initial business cycle conditions can affect assimilation outcomes over the long term
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