Consequence of Failure: Neurofuzzy-Based Prediction Model for Gas Pipelines

Abstract

AbstractOverall performance of energy infrastructure in the United States has been assessed as D+. More than 65% of America’s energy is transported through the oil and gas pipelines, which have experienced more than 10,000 failures during the last three decades. There is a critical need for a failure prediction tool that can forecast the consequences of the hazardous failures. Failure of gas pipelines has become the subject of interest for some studies in the past. Previous studies mainly focused on physical models that need inspection data or developed subjective models. This paper aims at developing a model to forecast the consequences of the potential failures of such pipes using the historical data of the U.S. gas pipes network. The model applies a neurofuzzy technique in order to recognize the existing pattern among the input and output variables. It estimates the financial consequences of various failure scenarios for specific pipes in terms of size and specified minimum yield strength. For this pur...