Connectivity among thermal habitats buffers the effects of warm climate on life-history traits and population dynamics.

Abstract

Contemporary climate change affects population dynamics, but its influence varies with landscape structure. It is still unclear whether landscape fragmentation buffers or amplifies the effects of climate on population size and the age and body size of individuals composing these populations. This study aims to investigate the impacts of warm climates on lizard life-history traits and population dynamics in habitats that vary in their connectivity. We monitored common lizard Zootoca vivipara populations for 3 years in an experimental system in which both climatic conditions and connectivity among habitats were simultaneously manipulated. We considered two climatic treatments (i.e. present-day climate and warm climate [+1.4°C than present-day climate]) and two connectivity treatments (i.e. a connected treatment in which individuals could move from one climate to the other and an isolated treatment in which movement between climates was not possible). We monitored survival, reproduction, growth, dispersal, age and body size of each individual in the system as well as population density through time. We found that the influence of warm climates on life-history traits and population dynamics depended on connectivity among thermal habitats. Populations in warm climates were (i) composed of younger individuals only when isolated; (ii) larger in population size only in connected habitats and (iii) composed of larger age-specific individuals independently of the landscape configuration. The connectivity among habitats altered population responses to climate warming likely through asymmetries in the flow and phenotype of dispersers between thermal habitats. Our results demonstrate that landscape fragmentation can drastically change the dynamics and persistence of populations facing climate change.