Connection between interannual variation of spring precipitation in Northeast China and preceding winter sea ice over the Barents Sea

Abstract

AbstractThis study discusses the interannual variation of spring precipitation in Northeast China (NECSP) from 1980 to 2016 and its relationship with Arctic sea ice based on observation data and numerical experiments. The observed results reveal that the leading mode of NECSP mainly exhibits a homogenous pattern with a significant interannual variation. The NECSP has a significant negative correlation with the preceding winter Barents Sea ice concentration (BSIC) at the interannual scale. In the preceding winter, the decreased BSIC resulted in positive geopotential height anomalies over the polar region, which could weaken the polar vortex and westerly winds, forming a cyclonic anomaly indirectly over West Siberia. The circulation anomalies resulted in a zonal dipole pattern of preceding winter snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies in the mid‐high latitudes of Eurasia with less SWE over Eastern Europe and more SWE over West Siberia. The SWE anomalies in winter could persist to the subsequent spring and facilitate more precipitation over Northeast China (NEC) by local thermal processes affecting circulation anomalies over Eurasia. On the other hand, the negative preceding winter BSIC anomalies can persist to spring, increasing the NECSP by strengthening the cyclonic anomalies over NEC. In this study, the response of the atmosphere to the thermal effect of SWE is further verified by using the linear baroclinic model (LBM). The response of NECSP to BSIC loss is tested by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3).