Connecting Eurasian Supply Chains the Impact of Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine War on the EU-China Rail Landbridge

Abstract

International supply chains are dependent on ease of crossing borders and efficient connectivity in terms of price, speed, and reliability. Communication costs explain why intensification of international supply chains during the last 4 decades has occurred primarily within regional value chains (RVCs), centered on East Asia, Europe, and North America. Initially responding to demand from automobile and electronics firms to connect their European and Chinese supply chains with shorter and more reliable freight services than maritime shipping, the Eurasian rail Landbridge established in the 2010s was the first major overland link between RVCs. The Eurasian Landbridge was resilient through deteriorating EU-Russia relations after 2014 and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–21. However, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and inclusion of the Russian rail company in western sanctions in February/March 2022, traffic along the main Landbridge routes stalled. This paper analyzes the evolution of the Landbridge as an exercise in choice of connectivity for Eurasian supply chains, the response of supply chain managers to the closure of routes in 2022, and the role of public policy in creating reliable alternatives.