Connectedness and Shock Propagation in South African Equity Sectors during Extreme Market Conditions

Abstract

This study examined the connectedness and propagation of risk in the South African equity sectors during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the European Debt Crisis (EDC), the US–China trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily returns of nine Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) super sectors were examined from 3 January 2006 to 31 December 2021. Applying the connectedness matrix and time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, in full sample and sub-periods, the study showed that dynamic total connectedness of the super sectors is high in absolute form (62%). Furthermore, it was found that the highest volatility connectedness was during the EDC (68.83%) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (68.57%), followed by the GFC (63.16%) and lastly the US–China trade war (42.09%), respectively. This suggests that the tendency for a systemic risk is highest during the EDC, COVID-19, and GFC periods, and lowest during the US–China trade war. The financial sector was the primary net-transmitter of shocks during the COVID-19 period, while the automobile and parts sector was the strongest net-transmitter of shocks during the GFC, EDC, and US–China trade war. Similarly, the strongest net recipient of shocks during GFC, EDC, and COVID-19 is the chemical super sector. The study concludes that there is a significant volatility connectedness among JSE super sectors. In addition, the JSE super sectors exhibit time-varying connectedness during extreme events. Moreover, the net-transmitter and net-receiver of shock do not change significantly during different crisis periods. The policy implications of the findings are highlighted in the concluding section.