Congruent with whom? Parties’ issue emphases and voter preferences in welfare politics

Abstract

ABSTRACT Over the last decades we have witnessed a growing support coalition for the welfare state and at the same time an increase in conflict over its specific design. In this context of high but specific support for social policy, parties engage in issue competition. The question therefore arises as to how well parties’ social policy issue emphases match voters’ preferences and which voters’ preferences do they match? Building on issue yield theory, I argue that parties emphasise bridge policies; policies that enjoy high support both among partisans and among the general electorate. Using an original online-survey and a new and fine-grained coding of social policy emphasis in party manifestos from seven West European countries, I find that parties, irrespective of party family, are indeed congruent with both supporters and the general electorate. Hence, general congruence is quite high, but specifically directed towards broadly supported issues.