Congressional Term Limits, State Legislative Term Limits and Congressional Turnover: A Theory of Change

Abstract

During the first Congress of the United States, two measures to amend Article I of the Constitution were considered which, if ratified, would have limited the number of successive terms held by senators and representatives. Those measures were defeated and the issue was not considered again for over 150 years. However, since 1943 when the proposal was first resurrected in Congress, interest in the idea has grown to the point that from January 1981 through February 1992 no less than 69 proposals to limit the tenure of our national legislators were introduced into Congress (Richardson 1991, 80-90, 93-100; Richardson 1992, 1).Today the idea of limiting the number of successive terms a member of Congress may hold is hotter than ever. Fanned by the support of the 1988 and 1992 Republican National Conventions, and fueled by the efforts of several special interest groups, the idea has achieved high levels of public support nationally. A nationwide poll of likely voters conducted two weeks before the 1992 elections showed that 79% favored congressional term limitations (Shafer 1992). In an impressive burst of voter resolve, 15 states have passed amendments to their constitutions that attempt to limit the number of successive terms that their own U.S. representatives and senators may serve in office.