Abstract
No single influence or perspective dominates congressional attitudes toward defense manpower issues. Reducing growth in defense spending will play a role as will other factors like public attitudes and political inclinations of key committee members. Despite diverse influences, some likely trends emerge. The Congress will probably not debate seriously-let alone enact-a return to conscription while recruiting is doing well, but there remains a willingness to reconsider the all-volunteer force should recruiting falter. Growth in active-duty forces will probably be limited, both to save money and to foster reliance on reserves. Military pay raises, too, may be limited so long as recruiting and retention remain good, but the Congress seems likely to grant catch-up raises if problems recur. Congressional debate over military retirement will continue. Unless agreement can be reached on comprehensive reform, continued piecemeal changessuch as modification of cost-of-living provisions-seem likely.
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