Congress, ideological extremity, and Latino demography: understanding congressional adaptability in the face of Latino population change

Abstract

ABSTRACT As Latinos settle in new locations across the U.S., Republican members of Congress (MCs) are increasingly faced with adapting their behavior to incorporate this ideologically variant group. I argue that Republican MCs adapt to changing district demographics through vigilant assessment of the makeup (percent Latino) and preferences (white racial threat attitudes) of their reelection constituency. Using data from 1971 to 2015, I demonstrate that Republican MCs roll-call behavior is increasingly conservative until the district Latino population reaches 37%, where they begin to incorporate Latino interests and reduce their extreme conservative fervor. Between 30-35% Latinos, Republican MCs exhibit the lowest level of dyadic district congruence, illustrating that they are cross-pressured by conservative whites and liberal Latinos within this range. These findings suggest that Republican members of Congress are already adapting to the growing Latino population in their districts in an unexpected manner and will only incorporate Latinos when electorally necessary.