Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT).

Łukasz Markiewicz,Elżbieta Kubińska,Tadeusz Tyszka

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01073

Łukasz Markiewicz, Elżbieta Kubińska + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01073

Copy DOI

Abstract

Figner et al. (2009) developed the Columbia Card Task (CCT) to measure risk-taking attitudes. This tool consists of two versions: in the COLD version the decision maker needs to state in advance how many cards (out of 32) they want to turn over (so called static risk taking), in the HOT version they have the possibility of turning over all 32 cards one-by-one until they decide to finish (dynamic risk taking). We argue that the HOT version confounds an individual’s willingness to accept risk with their beliefs in trend continuation vs. trend reversal in a prognostic task. In two experimental studies we show that people believing in trend continuation (momentum subjects) turn over more cards than those believing in trend reversal (contrarians) in the HOT version of the task. However, this is not the case in the COLD version. Thus, we provide evidence that, when considered as a dynamic risk propensity measure, the number of turned over cards in the HOT version of the CCT is a contaminated measure and reflects two phenomena: (1) risk preference and (2) the decision-maker’s belief in trend continuation. We speculate that other dynamic risk taking measures can also be biased by a momentum strategy.

Highlights

Traditional static risk taking measures such as that of Holt and Laury (2002) have limited success in predicting individual differences in naturalistic risk-taking (Wärneryd, 1996; Kubinska and Markiewicz, 2012a,b) dynamic risk taking measures have been introduced (Wallsten et al, 2005)
The prognostic strategy task was programed by the first author, while the Columbia Card Task (CCT) script was downloaded from the Inquisit Task Library
We demonstrated a significant main effect of CCT task on the number of turned over cards, F(1,154) = 506.71, p = 0.001, η2 = 0.767

Summary

Introduction

Traditional static risk taking measures such as that of Holt and Laury (2002) have limited success in predicting individual differences in naturalistic risk-taking (Wärneryd, 1996; Kubinska and Markiewicz, 2012a,b) dynamic risk taking measures have been introduced (Wallsten et al, 2005). Many authors argue that such measures are much better predictors than static measures of reallife risk taking behaviors such as drinking, smoking, or stealing (Lejuez et al, 2003, 2007). The HOT version of the Columbia Card Task (CCT; Figner et al, 2009) is one such dynamic risk taking measure (Dahne et al, 2013). The main aim of this study was to test whether the task confounds measurement of risk propensity with individual beliefs in trend continuation. In each of 64 CCT1 rounds, participant (P) sees a deck of 32 loss and gain cards face down and characteristics of particular round: the number of loss cards (n) hidden among all remaining gain

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion