Conflict, Stability and Development in Central Asia

Abstract

Three years have elapsed since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and consequent emergence of five independent states in Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan1 — and it is too soon to predict how these new entities will develop. However, although the region has experienced real and fundamental change in the twentieth century, there has also been a significant degree of continuity. Thus, in order to understand the key factors in this period of transition it is necessary to look not only at the configurations that are presently taking shape, but also at the historical background. This paper therefore gives a brief account of the cultural and historical context before attempting to map potential areas of conflict.