Conflict Drivers

Abstract

This chapter uses conflict analysis, a method of discerning the sources and dynamics of violent conflict, to assess key drivers of sectarian violence in Iraq following the US invasion. Violence did not erupt automatically, but rather was driven by a variety of factors at global, regional, and national levels of analysis. The most significant conflict drivers are found at the state level. Bad governance and poor economic conditions created a security dilemma for Iraqis so that for many, day-to-day governance revolved primarily around family members, tribes, religion, and the surrounding people of an area, and only secondarily toward the institution of the state. Additional primary factors included purposeful actions by internal and external actors to foment violence and a series of critical mistakes made by the US and Coalition forces.KeyWordsConflict analysisConflict driversSectarianismGlobal War on Terror (GWOT)BaathismAl Quaeda in IraqMahdi armySecurity dilemmaGovernanceLocal/private authoritiesHorizontal legitimacyVertical legitimacyElite strategiesCoalition Provisional Authority (CPA)United States Agency for International Development (USAID)