Conflict and uneven development in the multidecade distributed solar energy transition in the United States.

Abstract

A longitudinal analysis of small-scale solar energy generation in the United States is used to demonstrate how transition studies can explain nonlinearity in multidecade changes of consumption-production systems. Nonlinearity involves uneven development of sustainability innovations with episodes of rapid growth but also periods of slow growth, stalling, or even collapse. Factors that affect the increasing feasibility and attractiveness of small-scale solar include technological improvements, declining costs, and changes in global energy markets. However, a more complete explanation of nonlinearity highlights the importance of a type of systems analysis that also includes strategic action and broader societal and policy changes. Specifically, efforts by the utilities constrained the growth of small-scale solar by weakening policy support because of the perceived threat, but the solar industry and advocates responded with countervailing action in a changing context. As the transition developed, strategic action (including goals, targets, tactics, and coalition partners) changed and became more conflictual. However, by the beginning of the 2020 decade, the development of microgrids, digital technologies, storage, and virtual power plants in combination with net-zero energy policies provided indications of potential for a reconfiguration of the relationship that could be less polarized and conflicted.