Conflict and Agricultural Production: Using Earth Observation to Assess Productivity and Support Rehabilitation in Syria

Abstract

It is often difficult to retrieve timely and reliable information on agricultural production in areas under conflict. Security conditions disrupt the normal data collection and agricultural statistics are often not available, or of questionable accuracy. Satellite Earth observation (EO) is a powerful solution, as it can assess agricultural production in areas difficult to access and provide unbiased information on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this study was to analyse changes in cultivated area and agricultural productivity in Syria prior to and during conflict. As EO provides both historical and near-real time operational data, changes can be rapidly identified in a cost-effective, consistent and repeatable manner. Overall, we found that agricultural productivity in irrigated land in Syria has decreased since the start of the conflict. The results provided input to an integrated multi-sector analysis carried out by the World Bank to inform future policy decisions, reconstruction efforts and shape future development response. Analysis of status, changes, and trends in agricultural area extent and productivity helped to identify the need and most suitable types of intervention, the timing and the targeting criteria. Combining the results with other datasets allows the identification of drivers and aggregators in agriculture, particularly in the context of conflict and economy. Furthermore, the results could also be used to focus rehabilitation actions after the conflict ends, for example the planning of re-establishing agricultural supply chains.