Confidence modulates the decodability of scene prediction during partially-observable maze exploration in humans

Abstract

Prediction ability often involves some degree of uncertainty—a key determinant of confidence. Here, we sought to assess whether predictions are decodable in partially-observable environments where one’s state is uncertain, and whether this information is sensitive to confidence produced by such uncertainty. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging-based, partially-observable maze navigation tasks in which subjects predicted upcoming scenes and reported their confidence regarding these predictions. Using a multi-voxel pattern analysis, we successfully decoded both scene predictions and subjective confidence from activities in the localized parietal and prefrontal regions. We also assessed confidence in their beliefs about where they were in the maze. Importantly, prediction decodability varied according to subjective scene confidence in the superior parietal lobule and state confidence estimated by the behavioral model in the inferior parietal lobule. These results demonstrate that prediction in uncertain environments depends on the prefrontal-parietal network within which prediction and confidence interact.