Confidence is predicted by pre- and post-choice decision signal dynamics.

Abstract

It is well established that one's confidence in a choice can be influenced by new evidence encountered after commitment has been reached, but the processes through which post-choice evidence is sampled remain unclear. To investigate this, we traced the pre- and post-choice dynamics of electrophysiological signatures of evidence accumulation (Centro-parietal Positivity, CPP) and motor preparation (mu/beta band) to determine their sensitivity to participants' confidence in their perceptual discriminations. Pre-choice CPP amplitudes scaled with confidence both when confidence was reported simultaneously with choice, and when reported 1 second after the initial direction decision with no intervening evidence. When additional evidence was presented during the post-choice delay period, the CPP exhibited sustained activation after the initial choice, with a more prolonged build-up on trials with lower certainty in the alternative that was finally endorsed, irrespective of whether this entailed a change-of-mind from the initial choice or not. Further investigation established that this pattern was accompanied by later lateralisation of motor preparation signals toward the ultimately chosen response and slower confidence reports when participants indicated low certainty in this response. These observations are consistent with certainty-dependent stopping theories according to which post-choice evidence accumulation ceases when a criterion level of certainty in a choice alternative has been reached, but continues otherwise. Our findings have implications for current models of choice confidence, and predictions they may make about EEG signatures.