Confidence-Based Assessment of Safety of Irrigation Reservoir in Vietnam

Abstract

Recently, in Vietnam deterministic design method has been applying for assessment of dam safety which confidence for the works and the headworks are not quantified. Under this study audience are introduced to the number of existing dams in Vietnam and relevant studies on confidence in the field of irrigation. The authors have applied theories of irrigation works, the theory of statistical probability and the theory of system analysis in developing algorithms for assessment of confidence level II for irrigation reservoir headworks in conditions in Vietnam. Based on detailed algorithms and block diagrams, the authors have built program for design of safety probability for incident mechanisms for individual works and the entire system of Phu Ninh reservoir in Quang Nam province. Analysis of the influence of random variables on individual incident mechanisms, the impact of incident mechanisms on the confidence of the works and the level of effect caused by the works on the overall confidence of the system brought the authors about solutions that improve the confidence of the system in case of new design or system repair.