Confidence and accuracy in judgements using computer displayed information

Abstract

Abstract Confidence and accuracy in decision making are often unrelated, contrary to popular belief. In practice, confidence is often relied upon as evidence of good decision making, since the quality of a decision is difficult to determine at the time the decision is made. Information systems are increasingly used to assist decision making in organizations. Researchers believe that task, information system, and human characteristics affect the relationship between accuracy and confidence. In this research, manipulation of task, system, or human characteristics that led to an increase in confidence in decision making did not lead to an increase in decision accuracy and vice versa. In this study decision accuracy was judged by a decision process measure instead of a decision outcome measure. It was observed that subjects who had higher numerical skills than spatial skills expressed significantly more confidence in their decisions in a problem solving task; however, decision accuracy scores were not signifi...