Conducting mass gathering events during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of Kumbh Mela 2021 as a potential 'super spreader event'.

Abstract

Background: With the emergence of novel pathogens, there is a debate worldwide on the cancellation or conduction of mass gathering events.Methods: In the current COVID-19 pandemic, this study assesses the challenges in the conduction of the recently held Kumbh Mela mass gathering (MG) which took place from 14th January 2021-29th April 2021 at Haridwar, the capital city of the state of Uttarakhand, India. The correlation between increased cases of COVID-19 and the Kumbh Mela MG has been highlighted through statistical analysis and growth curves using the available data.Results: The Kumbh Mela-2021 emerged as a potential super spreader event with an increase from 37 cases per day to 144 cases per day (276%) in the COVID-19 cases in Haridwar. An increase from 138 to 480 cases per day (236%) and from 45 600 to 92 754 cases per day (92%) was noted in Uttarakhand and India respectively during this MG. A very strong correlation of ‘more than 0.99’ was seen between the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Uttarakhand and Haridwar, and Haridwar and India during the Kumbh Mela in the third wave of the pandemic.Conclusions: The direct influence of Kumbh Mela on the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is documented. Although, the socio-cultural, psychological, and economical advantages of MGs are considerable, in a developing nation like India organization of such events can be a huge health hazard. The lack of efficient implementation and observance of COVID-19 guidelines increase the necessity of cancellation of such MGs to prevent the outbreak of diseases. Thus, a well conducted risk assessment prior to the hosting of a MG event during a pandemic is required with strict application of precautionary measures during the event to prevent any superspreading events.